Today: AA 1911 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–39%.

Safest bet today AA 1911 DFW 08:50 → RNO 10:11 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 1273 DFW 22:32 → RNO 23:58 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1911 American Flight history →	DFW 08:50	RNO 10:11	16%	4%	0.2%	83%
AA 324 American Flight history →	DFW 11:55	RNO 13:17	29%	8%	0.2%	73%
AA 3251 American Flight history →	DFW 18:15	RNO 19:42	36%	9%	0.4%	51%
AA 1273 American Flight history →	DFW 22:32	RNO 23:58	39%	10%	1.8%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON