Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2428 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2428 DFW 07:15 → RSW 10:57 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest AA 2736 DFW 13:57 → RSW 17:44 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2428 American Flight history →	DFW 07:15	RSW 10:57	19%	5%	2.3%	67%
AA 2740 American Flight history →	DFW 09:46	RSW 13:34	22%	6%	2.3%	77%
AA 2446 American Flight history →	DFW 13:34	RSW 17:16	31%	10%	2.7%	49%
AA 1267 American Flight history →	DFW 18:51	RSW 22:38	31%	13%	3.9%	57%
AA 2736 American Flight history →	DFW 13:57	RSW 17:44	33%	12%	2.3%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON