Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 4039 at 09:38 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–50%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4039 DFW 09:38 → SAT 10:52 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 546 DFW 19:55 → SAT 21:03 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4039 Envoy	DFW 09:38	SAT 10:52	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 4084 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:01	SAT 13:11	18%	3%	0.7%	79%
AA 9782 American	DFW 07:08	SAT 08:27	21%	7%	0.5%	no record
AA 1836 American Flight history →	DFW 07:38	SAT 08:46	21%	7%	0.5%	85%
AA 2759 American Flight history →	DFW 08:37	SAT 10:03	26%	7%	1.3%	80%
AA 413 American Flight history →	DFW 10:47	SAT 12:13	30%	9%	1.3%	71%
AA 1582 American	DFW 12:09	SAT 13:32	33%	9%	1.9%	no record
AA 983 American	DFW 13:48	SAT 15:08	33%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 1961 American Flight history →	DFW 14:32	SAT 15:55	34%	9%	1.3%	67%
AA 2368 American Flight history →	DFW 17:56	SAT 19:11	41%	11%	1.6%	59%
AA 1539 American Flight history →	DFW 13:49	SAT 14:56	42%	10%	1.3%	54%
AA 2374 American Flight history →	DFW 16:37	SAT 17:49	44%	11%	1.3%	53%
AA 499 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	SAT 19:43	46%	11%	1.3%	61%
AA 3097 American Flight history →	DFW 21:56	SAT 23:04	46%	12%	1.3%	51%
AA 1599 American Flight history →	DFW 22:50	SAT 23:58	46%	10%	1.6%	41%
AA 1406 American Flight history →	DFW 20:48	SAT 22:00	50%	12%	1.2%	59%
AA 546 American Flight history →	DFW 19:55	SAT 21:03	50%	12%	1.6%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON