tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:04 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Phoenix, leaving 13:40, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Santa Barbara on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DFW 13:40 → PHX 14:08AA 2113 2h 28m Phoenix PHX 16:36 → SBA 18:20AA 3900 · flown by Envoy 6h 40m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → DFW 18:12 → SLC 20:00DL 2812 1h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest 5h 53m 78% 69%
AlaskaDetails → DFW 14:05 → PDX 16:03AS 303 1h 26m Portland PDX 17:29 → SBA 19:55AS 2029 · flown by Horizon 7h 50m 78% 67%
AmericanDetails → DFW 16:37 → PHX 17:09AA 1155 3h 18m Phoenix PHX 20:27 → SBA 21:57AA 1731 7h 20m 96% 62%
AmericanDetails → DFW 14:30 → PHX 14:57AA 2108 1h 44m Phoenix PHX 16:41 → SBA 18:17AA 4927 · flown by SkyWest 5h 47m 85% 60%
AmericanDetails → DFW 17:55 → PHX 18:27AA 1648 2h 47m Phoenix PHX 21:14 → SBA 22:57AA 1855 7h 02m 88% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303 1h 03m Denver DEN 19:23 → SBA 20:59UA 2479 6h 09m 71% 52%
AmericanDetails → DFW 18:39 → PHX 19:12AA 2047 1h 15m Phoenix PHX 20:27 → SBA 21:57AA 1731 5h 18m 65% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON