Today: AA 4152 at 14:17 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–41%.

Safest bet today AA 4152 DFW 14:17 → SDF 17:30 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 2519 DFW 15:50 → SDF 18:58 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4152 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:17	SDF 17:30	13%	3%	0.7%	80%
MQ 4051 Envoy	DFW 07:11	SDF 10:21	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3791 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:31	SDF 12:48	14%	4%	0.5%	94%
OH 5276 PSA	DFW 14:10	SDF 17:17	28%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 1736 American	DFW 12:14	SDF 15:23	31%	13%	0.3%	no record
AA 2321 American	DFW 15:30	SDF 18:39	38%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 1211 American	DFW 18:13	SDF 21:22	40%	14%	0.9%	no record
AA 2426 American	DFW 20:16	SDF 23:25	41%	12%	0.9%	no record
AA 2519 American Flight history →	DFW 15:50	SDF 18:58	41%	13%	1.0%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON