Today: DL 804 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–42%.

Safest bet today DL 804 DFW 06:30 → SEA 08:46 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 757 DFW 12:17 → SEA 14:31 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 804 Delta Flight history →	DFW 06:30	SEA 08:46	16%	3%	0.4%	86%
AS 543 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 06:24	SEA 08:45	21%	3%	0.4%	81%
DL 408 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:15	SEA 18:35	24%	5%	0.6%	79%
DL 1806 Delta	DFW 17:35	SEA 19:45	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 321 Alaska	DFW 15:57	SEA 18:02	26%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 707 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	SEA 09:25	28%	7%	0.4%	83%worse than usual
AS 1574 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 16:16	SEA 18:37	30%	5%	0.6%	79%
AS 550 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 20:45	SEA 23:05	30%	6%	0.7%	66%
AS 341 Alaska	DFW 18:15	SEA 20:15	30%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 365 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 09:00	SEA 11:20	31%	4%	0.4%	77%
AS 322 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 18:03	SEA 20:24	31%	6%	0.7%	56%
AA 727 American Flight history →	DFW 14:33	SEA 16:47	33%	9%	1.0%	57%
AS 415 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 13:02	SEA 15:23	35%	8%	0.4%	83%worse than usual
AA 1487 American Flight history →	DFW 22:41	SEA 00:57	36%	7%	1.8%	47%
AA 2009 American Flight history →	DFW 16:53	SEA 19:11	37%	10%	1.2%	57%
AA 1483 American	DFW 17:24	SEA 19:31	38%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 717 American Flight history →	DFW 10:45	SEA 13:03	40%	11%	0.4%	76%worse than usual
AA 2003 American Flight history →	DFW 20:13	SEA 22:26	42%	9%	1.3%	55%
AA 767 American Flight history →	DFW 08:25	SEA 10:50	45%	9%	0.4%	74%worse than usual
AA 757 American Flight history →	DFW 12:17	SEA 14:31	47%	15%	0.4%	75%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773	1h 04m Denver	DEN 07:57 → SEA 09:43UA 1348	5h 58m	92%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON