Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 790 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 790 DFW 06:00 → SFO 07:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 3999 DFW 20:59 → SFO 22:59 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 790 United Flight history →	DFW 06:00	SFO 07:47	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
AA 1949 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	SFO 08:53	13%	5%	0.8%	78%
UA 1712 United Flight history →	DFW 11:02	SFO 12:51	16%	7%	0.6%	31%
AA 1849 American Flight history →	DFW 08:40	SFO 10:28	18%	6%	0.8%	51%
UA 454 United Flight history →	DFW 15:21	SFO 17:13	19%	8%	0.5%	78%
AA 2387 American Flight history →	DFW 11:24	SFO 13:06	22%	8%	0.8%	57%
AA 2997 American Flight history →	DFW 13:15	SFO 14:58	25%	8%	0.8%	54%
AA 2810 American Flight history →	DFW 16:17	SFO 17:59	33%	9%	0.8%	43%
AA 446 American Flight history →	DFW 22:59	SFO 00:43	33%	9%	1.0%	50%
AA 3072 American Flight history →	DFW 17:52	SFO 19:39	34%	10%	0.9%	39%
AA 1430 American Flight history →	DFW 19:28	SFO 21:10	37%	9%	0.9%	52%
AA 2228 American Flight history →	DFW 20:44	SFO 22:28	37%	9%	0.9%	20%
AA 2430 American Flight history →	DFW 21:34	SFO 23:18	37%	9%	0.9%	48%
F9 3999 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 20:59	SFO 22:59	37%	14%	1.6%	55%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773	47m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391	5h 33m	89%	74%
American Details →	DFW 12:33 → PHX 13:00AA 1685	1h 05m Phoenix	PHX 14:05 → SFO 16:05AA 2860	5h 32m	78%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON