Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:48 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 8 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: AA 4128 at 18:40 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30–40%.

Safest bet today AA 4128 DFW 18:40 → SHV 19:46 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest AA 6245 DFW 19:09 → SHV 20:17 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4128 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:40	SHV 19:46	24%	5%	0.5%	67%
OO 6251 SkyWest	DFW 22:13	SHV 23:21	30%	9%	0.4%	no record
AA 6284 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 21:35	SHV 22:44	33%	12%	0.4%	61%
AA 6339 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 19:51	SHV 21:00	40%	12%	0.4%	63%
AA 6245 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 19:09	SHV 20:17	40%	12%	0.4%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON