Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2572 at 09:15 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2572 DFW 09:15 → SJC 10:49 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 1940 DFW 21:24 → SJC 22:58 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2572 American Flight history →	DFW 09:15	SJC 10:49	13%	3%	0.7%	76%
AA 436 American Flight history →	DFW 12:00	SJC 13:33	18%	4%	0.7%	61%
AA 1940 American Flight history →	DFW 21:24	SJC 22:58	24%	6%	0.8%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON