Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 33–41% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 514 DFW 22:47 → SJU 04:39 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time Riskiest F9 2220 DFW 23:01 → SJU 05:02 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 514 American Flight history →	DFW 22:47	SJU 04:39	33%	8%	1.2%	49%
AA 702 American Flight history →	DFW 17:52	SJU 23:50	35%	10%	0.9%	61%
AA 3159 American	DFW 09:28	SJU 15:19	39%	10%	0.2%	no record
F9 2220 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 23:01	SJU 05:02	41%	14%	1.2%	58%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	DFW 06:00 → MIA 10:00AA 3055	1h 17m Miami	MIA 11:17 → SJU 14:12AA 2584	7h 12m	92%	69%
American Details →	DFW 10:32 → MIA 14:30AA 899	1h 10m Miami	MIA 15:40 → SJU 18:24AA 3165	6h 52m	83%	66%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882	7h 12m	95%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON