Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2081 at 08:16 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 2081 DFW 08:16 → SMF 09:58 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3314 DFW 20:59 → SMF 22:33 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2081 American Flight history →	DFW 08:16	SMF 09:58	17%	6%	0.9%	92%
AA 2633 American Flight history →	DFW 08:30	SMF 10:08	19%	6%	1.2%	82%
AA 2078 American Flight history →	DFW 12:06	SMF 13:59	22%	8%	0.9%	79%
AA 2634 American Flight history →	DFW 12:24	SMF 14:02	24%	8%	0.9%	73%
AA 651 American Flight history →	DFW 16:43	SMF 18:20	24%	10%	0.9%	57%
AA 509 American Flight history →	DFW 22:30	SMF 23:59	30%	8%	1.0%	44%
AA 3314 American Flight history →	DFW 20:59	SMF 22:33	30%	9%	1.2%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON