Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3944 at 10:25 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 3944 DFW 10:25 → STL 12:22 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1010 DFW 19:55 → STL 21:48 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3944 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:25	STL 12:22	12%	3%	0.6%	91%
AA 1410 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	STL 08:46	19%	5%	2.1%	86%
AA 3333 American	DFW 07:23	STL 09:15	21%	5%	2.1%	no record
AA 5655 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 10:41	STL 12:44	23%	7%	0.9%	70%
AA 1363 American Flight history →	DFW 12:36	STL 14:28	28%	7%	1.3%	57%
AA 2712 American Flight history →	DFW 14:41	STL 16:28	28%	9%	1.2%	32%
AA 3049 American Flight history →	DFW 22:12	STL 23:58	30%	9%	1.3%	52%
AA 2491 American Flight history →	DFW 16:39	STL 18:30	33%	9%	1.2%	55%
AA 2761 American Flight history →	DFW 18:02	STL 19:53	33%	10%	1.3%	56%
AA 1010 American Flight history →	DFW 19:55	STL 21:48	34%	11%	1.3%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON