Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:50 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Portland, leaving 17:45, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Santa Rosa on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Rosa is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	DFW 17:45 → PDX 19:49AS 646	1h 56m Portland	PDX 21:45 → STS 23:30AS 3115 · flown by SkyWest	7h 45m	95%	80%
Alaska Details →	DFW 16:16 → SEA 18:37AS 1574	2h 07m Seattle	SEA 20:44 → STS 22:51AS 3410 · flown by SkyWest	8h 35m	100%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON