Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2516 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 44%.

Safest bet that day AA 2516 DFW 07:10 → TPA 10:51 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2401 DFW 18:30 → TPA 22:08 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2516 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	TPA 10:51	13%	5%	0.7%	84%
AA 2814 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	TPA 10:41	14%	5%	0.7%	81%
F9 1334 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 05:30	TPA 09:09	15%	4%	1.5%	91%
AA 3245 American Flight history →	DFW 09:35	TPA 13:07	22%	6%	2.1%	70%
AA 844 American Flight history →	DFW 09:28	TPA 13:11	22%	6%	2.1%	58%
AA 2767 American Flight history →	DFW 12:08	TPA 15:40	25%	9%	2.2%	43%
AA 1957 American	DFW 12:56	TPA 16:38	26%	9%	2.2%	no record
AA 2813 American Flight history →	DFW 13:32	TPA 17:04	34%	12%	2.1%	46%
F9 2402 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:21	TPA 19:03	37%	13%	1.8%	74%worse than usual
AA 2512 American Flight history →	DFW 15:19	TPA 18:58	41%	15%	2.1%	67%
AA 3272 American Flight history →	DFW 15:26	TPA 18:58	41%	16%	2.7%	23%
AA 2256 American Flight history →	DFW 20:30	TPA 23:59	44%	15%	2.1%	37%
AA 2401 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	TPA 22:08	44%	16%	2.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON