Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2586 at 10:46 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 2586 DFW 10:46 → TUS 11:24 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1207 DFW 19:36 → TUS 19:52 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2586 American	DFW 10:46	TUS 11:24	22%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 1014 American Flight history →	DFW 08:20	TUS 08:38	22%	4%	1.9%	83%
AA 2926 American Flight history →	DFW 12:11	TUS 12:26	30%	6%	1.3%	68%
AA 584 American Flight history →	DFW 14:46	TUS 15:01	33%	8%	1.3%	60%
AA 1207 American Flight history →	DFW 19:36	TUS 19:52	39%	10%	1.6%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON