Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:22 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 16:26, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Traverse City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DFW 16:26 → ORD 18:43AA 1290	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → TVC 00:01 +1AA 3910 · flown by Envoy	6h 35m	95%	84%
United Details →	DFW 16:13 → ORD 18:55UA 2299	2h 30m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → TVC 23:54UA 3572 · flown by Republic	6h 41m	89%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DFW 17:47 → ORD 20:30UA 1564	55m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → TVC 23:54UA 3572 · flown by Republic	5h 07m	65%	59%
American Details →	DFW 17:34 → ORD 20:29AA 1893	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → TVC 00:01 +1AA 3910 · flown by Envoy	5h 27m	64%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON