Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 5593 at 07:51 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 5593 DFW 07:51 → TYS 11:13 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 1081 DFW 20:41 → TYS 23:51 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5593 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 07:51	TYS 11:13	15%	5%	0.8%	86%
AA 2544 American Flight history →	DFW 11:04	TYS 14:21	17%	5%	2.7%	82%
AA 2873 American Flight history →	DFW 09:45	TYS 12:53	19%	5%	2.7%	81%
AA 5453 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 18:34	TYS 21:59	25%	9%	0.7%	71%
AA 5346 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 18:31	TYS 21:41	26%	9%	0.7%	73%
AA 2550 American Flight history →	DFW 13:35	TYS 16:51	27%	8%	2.3%	67%
OH 5393 PSA	DFW 16:19	TYS 19:29	28%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 2876 American Flight history →	DFW 13:32	TYS 16:41	28%	7%	2.3%	49%
AA 644 American Flight history →	DFW 16:20	TYS 19:30	30%	10%	1.3%	40%
AA 1081 American Flight history →	DFW 20:41	TYS 23:51	35%	10%	2.1%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON