Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:13 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Today: AA 3847 at 12:36 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–42%.

Safest bet today AA 3847 DFW 12:36 → XNA 13:57 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 1804 DFW 15:52 → XNA 17:07 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3847 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:36	XNA 13:57	16%	3%	0.4%	76%
AA 3803 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:29	XNA 13:48	18%	3%	0.4%	91%
AA 3693 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 22:30	XNA 23:47	19%	3%	0.7%	77%
AA 3840 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:06	XNA 15:27	20%	3%	0.4%	79%
AA 4101 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:57	XNA 21:20	20%	4%	0.7%	71%
MQ 3605 Envoy	DFW 18:08	XNA 19:28	24%	3%	0.4%	no record
OH 5292 PSA	DFW 10:17	XNA 11:37	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 3275 American Flight history →	DFW 10:04	XNA 11:19	29%	6%	0.2%	76%
AA 495 American	DFW 11:51	XNA 13:10	31%	9%	0.3%	no record
AA 1197 American Flight history →	DFW 20:05	XNA 21:27	33%	13%	1.8%	63%
AA 3059 American Flight history →	DFW 21:19	XNA 22:37	37%	13%	1.6%	52%
AA 2150 American	DFW 16:01	XNA 17:22	40%	10%	0.3%	no record
AA 3274 American Flight history →	DFW 16:58	XNA 18:17	42%	10%	0.3%	58%
AA 1804 American Flight history →	DFW 15:52	XNA 17:07	43%	10%	0.3%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON