Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:47 pm at Des Moines); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 2094 Delta Flight history →	DSM 14:25	ATL 17:38	17%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 2086 Delta Flight history →	DSM 18:37	ATL 21:59	22%	4%	0.6%	85%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 14:45 → MSP 16:00DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	3h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 19:49 → ATL 23:44DL 1032	7h 59m	97%	78%
Southwest Details →	DSM 16:40 → MDW 18:00WN 1755	2h 50m Chicago	MDW 20:50 → ATL 23:58WN 2412	6h 18m	100%	78%
United Details →	DSM 15:09 → ORD 16:51UA 312	3h 18m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → ATL 23:30UA 2770	7h 21m	95%	76%
United Details →	DSM 15:26 → ORD 17:05UA 1989	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 18:20 → ATL 21:41UA 1398	5h 15m	88%	60%
American Details →	DSM 16:02 → DFW 18:02AA 1664	3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → ATL 00:19 +1AA 2749	7h 17m	91%	55%
American Details →	DSM 14:22 → DCA 18:00AA 5292 · flown by PSA	2h 01m Washington	DCA 20:01 → ATL 22:03AA 5502 · flown by PSA	6h 41m	88%	36%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DSM 16:40 → MDW 18:00WN 1755	50m Chicago	MDW 18:50 → ATL 21:50WN 4140	4h 10m	70%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON