Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 2854 DSM 07:04 → CLT 10:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1763 DSM 13:41 → CLT 17:11 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2854 American Flight history →	DSM 07:04	CLT 10:30	11%	3%	0.4%	90%
AA 2002 American	DSM 07:05	CLT 10:22	15%	4%	0.4%	no record
AA 2962 American Flight history →	DSM 11:11	CLT 14:27	16%	3%	0.4%	75%
AA 1763 American Flight history →	DSM 13:41	CLT 17:11	17%	4%	0.4%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON