Today: UA 5277 at 13:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–26%.

Safest bet today UA 5277 DSM 13:40 → DEN 14:51 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 1781 DSM 17:17 → DEN 18:23 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 5277 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DSM 13:40	DEN 14:51	11%	8%	0.2%	81%
UA 2064 United	DSM 13:23	DEN 14:47	12%	6%	0.2%	no record
OO 5950 SkyWest	DSM 11:51	DEN 12:12	15%	6%	0.2%	no record
F9 1677 Frontier Flight history →	DSM 20:22	DEN 21:23	17%	10%	0.6%	81%
WN 1770 Southwest Flight history →	DSM 13:30	DEN 14:25	19%	4%	0.2%	73%
WN 3967 Southwest	DSM 19:10	DEN 20:02	22%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 1781 United Flight history →	DSM 17:17	DEN 18:23	26%	7%	0.2%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON