Today: AA 3495 at 09:41 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–40%.

Safest bet today AA 3495 DSM 09:41 → DFW 11:48 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2229 DSM 19:45 → DFW 21:51 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 3495 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DSM 09:41	DFW 11:48	11%	4%	0.6%	89%
OH 5640 PSA	DSM 09:52	DFW 11:59	17%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 2421 American Flight history →	DSM 16:48	DFW 18:59	35%	10%	0.7%	46%
AA 1664 American Flight history →	DSM 16:01	DFW 18:02	39%	10%	0.7%	56%
AA 1762 American Flight history →	DSM 19:13	DFW 21:15	39%	9%	0.7%	46%
AA 2229 American Flight history →	DSM 19:45	DFW 21:51	40%	9%	2.7%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON