Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:54 am at Des Moines); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops today


UA 6117 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DSM 15:01	IAH 17:25	20%	8%	1.8%	80%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DSM 11:23 → ORD 13:03UA 1410	3h 02m Chicago	ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714	7h 47m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	2h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644	6h 45m	98%	78%
United Details →	DSM 11:34 → DEN 12:43UA 5288 · flown by SkyWest	2h 52m Denver	DEN 15:35 → IAH 19:10UA 489	7h 36m	100%	77%
United Details →	DSM 15:09 → ORD 16:50UA 312	3h 12m Chicago	ORD 20:02 → IAH 22:59UA 2813	7h 50m	94%	72%
United Details →	DSM 13:40 → DEN 14:51UA 5277 · flown by SkyWest	3h 14m Denver	DEN 18:05 → IAH 21:36UA 2791	7h 56m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:45 → MSP 15:58DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	2h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683	6h 50m	96%	72%
United Details →	DSM 15:26 → ORD 17:05UA 1989	1h 35m Chicago	ORD 18:40 → IAH 21:36UA 1475	6h 10m	91%	71%
American Details →	DSM 13:35 → ORD 15:17AA 4676 · flown by Republic	2h 00m Chicago	ORD 17:17 → IAH 20:14AA 2708	6h 39m	95%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DSM 15:09 → ORD 16:50UA 312	55m Chicago	ORD 17:45 → IAH 20:50UA 1954	5h 41m	67%	53%
Delta Details →	DSM 18:37 → ATL 21:59DL 2086	49m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	5h 20m	69%	52%
American Details →	DSM 19:45 → DFW 21:51AA 2229	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:48 → IAH 23:58AA 1914	4h 13m	55%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON