tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:42 pm at Des Moines); 3 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, G4 1708 at 22:01, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
G4 1708 Allegiant Flight history → DSM 22:01 LAS 23:08 23% 7% 0.4% 77%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DSM 16:40 → MDW 18:00WN 1755 2h 24m Chicago MDW 20:24 → LAS 22:09WN 2901 7h 29m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → DSM 17:51 → MSP 19:06DL 5020 · flown by Endeavor 2h 49m Minneapolis MSP 21:55 → LAS 23:14DL 1442 7h 23m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → DSM 14:45 → MSP 16:00DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor 2h 59m Minneapolis MSP 18:59 → LAS 20:20DL 2246 7h 35m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → DSM 15:09 → ORD 16:51UA 312 3h 37m Chicago ORD 20:28 → LAS 22:26UA 777 9h 17m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → DSM 15:26 → ORD 17:05UA 1989 2h 45m Chicago ORD 19:50 → LAS 21:59UA 2242 8h 33m 93% 76%
DeltaDetails → DSM 14:25 → ATL 17:38DL 2094 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 21:20 → LAS 22:35DL 825 10h 10m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → DSM 15:06 → IAH 17:41UA 6117 · flown by Mesa 2h 24m Houston IAH 20:05 → LAS 21:23UA 1360 8h 17m 95% 69%
UnitedDetails → DSM 17:17 → DEN 18:23UA 1781 2h 40m Denver DEN 21:03 → LAS 22:12UA 624 6h 55m 93% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DSM 19:13 → DFW 21:15AA 1762 1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:34 → LAS 23:26AA 624 6h 13m 68% 41%
AmericanDetails → DSM 18:32 → PHX 19:37AA 4995 · flown by SkyWest 59m Phoenix PHX 20:36 → LAS 21:43AA 2106 5h 11m 68% 41%
AmericanDetails → DSM 19:46 → DFW 21:51AA 2229 1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:59 → LAS 23:48AA 2998 6h 02m 64% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON