Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:07 pm at Des Moines); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 5490 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DSM 14:45	MSP 16:00	14%	4%	0.3%	76%
DL 5020 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DSM 17:51	MSP 19:06	15%	4%	0.3%	74%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DSM 18:33 → ORD 20:28AA 4973 · flown by SkyWest	2h 08m Chicago	ORD 22:36 → MSP 00:22 +1AA 4472 · flown by Republic	5h 49m	95%	83%
United Details →	DSM 13:40 → DEN 14:51UA 5277 · flown by SkyWest	3h 54m Denver	DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076	8h 10m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	DSM 16:40 → MDW 18:00WN 1755	3h 25m Chicago	MDW 21:25 → MSP 22:55WN 2052	6h 15m	100%	75%
United Details →	DSM 15:09 → ORD 16:52UA 312	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	6h 32m	95%	74%
United Details →	DSM 17:17 → DEN 18:23UA 1781	2h 31m Denver	DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667	6h 42m	92%	70%
United Details →	DSM 15:06 → IAH 17:41UA 6117 · flown by Mesa	2h 19m Houston	IAH 20:00 → MSP 23:10UA 1872	8h 04m	94%	69%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:25 → ATL 17:38DL 2094	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38DL 1280	7h 13m	95%	67%
American Details →	DSM 16:02 → DFW 18:02AA 1664	3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149	7h 55m	93%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DSM 18:50 → ORD 20:30UA 6050 · flown by SkyWest	58m Chicago	ORD 21:28 → MSP 23:10UA 1131	4h 20m	68%	51%
American Details →	DSM 16:02 → DFW 18:02AA 1664	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:51 → MSP 21:21AA 2806	5h 19m	41%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON