Today: AA 4102 at 20:50 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–32%.

Safest bet today AA 4102 DSM 20:50 → ORD 22:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest UA 2769 DSM 11:53 → ORD 12:20 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4102 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DSM 20:50	ORD 22:30	11%	4%	0.6%	68%
AA 4676 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DSM 13:35	ORD 15:17	11%	3%	0.2%	83%
YX 4510 Republic	DSM 19:32	ORD 21:09	16%	4%	0.4%	no record
OO 6040 SkyWest	DSM 13:32	ORD 15:07	21%	8%	0.4%	no record
UA 312 United Flight history →	DSM 15:09	ORD 16:51	22%	5%	0.2%	73%
OO 4933 SkyWest	DSM 14:00	ORD 15:27	22%	7%	0.4%	no record
UA 1989 United Flight history →	DSM 15:26	ORD 17:05	22%	5%	0.3%	67%
UA 2770 United	DSM 18:52	ORD 20:27	24%	6%	0.3%	no record
AA 4973 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DSM 18:33	ORD 20:28	26%	7%	0.5%	55%
UA 6050 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DSM 18:50	ORD 20:30	26%	7%	0.5%	47%
UA 2769 United	DSM 11:53	ORD 12:20	32%	8%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON