Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:15 pm at Des Moines); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 5479 at 13:34, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 5479 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DSM 13:34	PHL 16:31	31%	11%	1.9%	90%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 17:51 → MSP 19:06DL 5020 · flown by Endeavor	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703	5h 05m	90%	76%
American Details →	DSM 13:35 → ORD 15:17AA 4676 · flown by Republic	3h 23m Chicago	ORD 18:40 → PHL 21:58AA 2443	7h 23m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:25 → ATL 17:38DL 2094	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:27DL 1174	7h 02m	98%	72%
United Details →	DSM 18:50 → ORD 20:30UA 6050 · flown by SkyWest	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:57 +1UA 1744	5h 07m	86%	69%
Frontier Details →	DSM 20:22 → DEN 21:23F9 1677	2h 36m Denver	DEN 23:59 → PHL 05:39 +1F9 3340	8h 17m	93%	69%
United Details →	DSM 15:09 → ORD 16:52UA 312	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → PHL 21:19UA 1776	5h 10m	80%	62%
American Details →	DSM 18:33 → ORD 20:28AA 4973 · flown by SkyWest	1h 17m Chicago	ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:59 +1AA 490	5h 26m	79%	61%
Southwest Details →	DSM 16:40 → MDW 18:00WN 1755	55m Chicago	MDW 18:55 → PHL 22:04WN 4757	4h 24m	76%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DSM 15:26 → ORD 17:05UA 1989	54m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → PHL 21:19UA 1776	4h 53m	66%	51%
American Details →	DSM 16:48 → DFW 18:59AA 2421	1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:19 → PHL 00:35 +1AA 2542	6h 47m	68%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON