tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:24 pm at Des Moines); 5 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 4995 at 18:32, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4995 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → DSM 18:32 PHX 19:37 33% 11% 0.7% 85%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DSM 15:26 → ORD 17:05UA 1989 3h 25m Chicago ORD 20:30 → PHX 22:27UA 602 9h 01m 96% 73%
SouthwestDetails → DSM 16:40 → MDW 18:00WN 1755 2h 35m Chicago MDW 20:35 → PHX 22:15WN 2863 7h 35m 100% 71%
AmericanDetails → DSM 18:33 → ORD 20:28AA 4973 · flown by SkyWest 2h 23m Chicago ORD 22:51 → PHX 00:57 +1AA 435 8h 24m 98% 67%
UnitedDetails → DSM 17:17 → DEN 18:23UA 1781 2h 42m Denver DEN 21:05 → PHX 22:13UA 1194 6h 56m 92% 60%
AmericanDetails → DSM 16:48 → DFW 18:59AA 2421 4h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:59 → PHX 23:28AA 2319 8h 40m 92% 47%
AmericanDetails → DSM 16:02 → DFW 18:03AA 1664 3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:29 → PHX 22:00AA 3239 7h 58m 91% 46%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DSM 16:02 → DFW 18:03AA 1664 1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:14 → PHX 19:43AA 818 5h 41m 59% 27%
AmericanDetails → DSM 16:48 → DFW 18:59AA 2421 1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:14 → PHX 20:49AA 3232 6h 01m 57% 27%
AmericanDetails → DSM 19:46 → DFW 21:52AA 2229 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:51 → PHX 23:33AA 1931 5h 47m 51% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON