Today: DL 3175 at 09:24 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–39%.

Safest bet today DL 3175 DTW 09:24 → ATL 11:38 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2899 DTW 17:35 → ATL 19:49 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 3175 Delta	DTW 09:24	ATL 11:38	6%	3%	0.1%	no record
DL 2777 Delta Flight history →	DTW 09:25	ATL 11:21	9%	3%	0.1%	86%
DL 630 Delta	DTW 20:43	ATL 22:58	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 2294 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:55	ATL 23:09	12%	4%	0.7%	72%
DL 9963 Delta	DTW 22:51	ATL 00:54	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 2856 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:25	ATL 12:19	13%	4%	0.1%	86%
DL 1983 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:59	ATL 17:03	17%	4%	0.1%	78%
DL 2188 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:25	ATL 14:20	20%	4%	0.1%	71%
DL 1467 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:59	ATL 18:00	21%	3%	0.1%	77%
DL 2045 Delta Flight history →	DTW 19:35	ATL 21:44	21%	4%	0.2%	56%
DL 2053 Delta Flight history →	DTW 18:09	ATL 20:19	24%	4%	0.2%	75%
F9 3409 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 15:18	ATL 17:28	30%	14%	0.7%	67%
F9 2899 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 17:35	ATL 19:49	39%	17%	0.9%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON