Today: DL 4440 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet today DL 4440 DTW 10:00 → ATW 10:29 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 4166 DTW 17:24 → ATW 17:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 4440 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 10:00	ATW 10:29	16%	7%	0.2%	81%
OO 3982 SkyWest	DTW 12:50	ATW 13:14	21%	9%	0.2%	no record
DL 4159 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 21:09	ATW 21:37	22%	7%	0.6%	70%
DL 4166 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 17:24	ATW 17:50	28%	12%	0.2%	74%
DL 4696 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 12:58	ATW 13:25	21%	5%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON