Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:23 pm at Detroit); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 2814 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:35	BDL 16:18	16%	6%	0.2%	87%
DL 2989 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:30	BDL 23:14	20%	8%	0.2%	78%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	2h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 20:00 → BDL 23:39DL 2871	7h 19m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	DTW 15:59 → ATL 18:00DL 1467	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 21:31 → BDL 23:54DL 1011	7h 55m	98%	77%
Southwest Details →	DTW 17:45 → BWI 19:15WN 1526	3h 40m Baltimore	BWI 22:55 → BDL 00:20 +1WN 1879	6h 35m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 20:31 → BDL 22:56DL 2765	7h 57m	100%	75%
United Details →	DTW 14:10 → ORD 14:47UA 5381 · flown by SkyWest	3h 23m Chicago	ORD 18:10 → BDL 21:33UA 516	7h 23m	97%	75%
American Details →	DTW 13:52 → CLT 15:45AA 1683	3h 37m Charlotte	CLT 19:22 → BDL 21:20AA 3280	7h 28m	100%	69%
American Details →	DTW 18:11 → ORD 18:58AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 20:04 → BDL 23:37AA 2165	5h 26m	90%	68%
United Details →	DTW 19:45 → IAD 21:20UA 6362 · flown by Mesa	1h 05m Dulles	IAD 22:25 → BDL 23:59UA 444	4h 14m	80%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DTW 18:10 → MSP 19:07DL 1842	53m Minneapolis	MSP 20:00 → BDL 23:39DL 2871	5h 29m	74%	59%
Delta Details →	DTW 15:59 → ATL 18:00DL 1467	56m Atlanta	ATL 18:56 → BDL 21:19DL 2504	5h 20m	70%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON