Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1163 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 1163 DTW 07:05 → BOS 09:02 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 1136 DTW 18:44 → BOS 20:40 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1163 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	BOS 09:02	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2648 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:05	BOS 12:00	9%	3%	0.6%	83%
B6 1236 JetBlue Flight history →	DTW 07:30	BOS 09:22	12%	7%	0.8%	91%
DL 1187 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:59	BOS 23:59	15%	6%	0.6%	71%
DL 1171 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:01	BOS 16:09	16%	5%	0.6%	70%
B6 1336 JetBlue Flight history →	DTW 12:08	BOS 14:11	18%	9%	0.7%	72%
DL 1707 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:58	BOS 20:00	19%	7%	0.6%	57%
B6 1136 JetBlue Flight history →	DTW 18:44	BOS 20:40	26%	16%	0.7%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON