Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1842 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1842 DTW 05:25 → BWI 07:04 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1516 DTW 12:50 → BWI 14:26 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1842 Southwest	DTW 05:25	BWI 07:04	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4534 Southwest Flight history →	DTW 05:50	BWI 07:20	4%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 2341 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:10	BWI 08:44	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 1546 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:15	BWI 11:47	6%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 2480 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:05	BWI 16:41	10%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 2715 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:45	BWI 23:18	13%	3%	0.6%	78%
WN 1526 Southwest Flight history →	DTW 17:45	BWI 19:15	19%	4%	0.5%	30%
F9 1516 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 12:50	BWI 14:26	22%	9%	0.7%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON