Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: DL 3016 at 15:47, 26%.

Safest bet today DL 3016 DTW 15:47 → CHS 17:57 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2676 DTW 15:50 → CHS 17:56 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Weather 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3016 Delta	DTW 15:47	CHS 17:57	26%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 2676 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:50	CHS 17:56	26%	8%	0.6%	74%
DL 5431 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 10:05	CHS 12:20	11%	7%	1.8%	89%
DL 5433 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 20:31	CHS 22:44	38%	9%	3.6%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON