Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 15–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 3581 DTW 14:14 → CLE 15:10 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest DL 4071 DTW 20:15 → CLE 21:12 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3581 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 14:14	CLE 15:10	15%	6%	0.7%	80%
DL 3559 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 12:43	CLE 13:40	15%	7%	0.7%	78%
OO 4021 SkyWest	DTW 20:03	CLE 21:05	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 3646 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 22:57	CLE 23:56	18%	5%	0.7%	78%
DL 4071 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 20:15	CLE 21:12	20%	7%	0.7%	70%
DL 5392 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 08:35	CLE 09:37	16%	7%	0.0%	84%
DL 4954 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 17:42	CLE 18:46	33%	16%	0.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON