Today looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 15–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 1429 DTW 14:05 → CLT 15:55 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2198 DTW 17:02 → CLT 18:56 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1429 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:05	CLT 15:55	15%	6%	0.2%	85%
AA 1781 American Flight history →	DTW 13:41	CLT 15:35	16%	6%	0.3%	77%
AA 1683 American Flight history →	DTW 13:52	CLT 15:45	16%	7%	0.3%	83%
AA 1770 American Flight history →	DTW 16:17	CLT 18:17	17%	7%	0.3%	70%
AA 1794 American Flight history →	DTW 19:58	CLT 21:55	17%	7%	0.3%	72%
AA 1443 American	DTW 19:58	CLT 21:57	17%	7%	0.3%	no record
DL 2352 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:05	CLT 21:57	18%	7%	0.2%	74%
AA 2198 American	DTW 17:02	CLT 18:56	21%	7%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON