Today: DL 5634 at 22:50 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 10–11%.

Safest bet today DL 5634 DTW 22:50 → CMH 23:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest OO 3867 DTW 16:56 → CMH 18:04 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5634 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 22:50	CMH 23:56	7%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 5810 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 10:15	CMH 11:23	7%	2%	0.1%	94%
DL 5838 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 19:54	CMH 21:02	10%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 3739 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 08:40	CMH 09:51	10%	8%	0.2%	82%
DL 5774 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 12:20	CMH 13:27	11%	2%	0.1%	90%
OO 3885 SkyWest	DTW 08:50	CMH 10:00	11%	8%	0.2%	no record
DL 3782 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 16:58	CMH 18:06	24%	8%	0.2%	81%
OO 3867 SkyWest	DTW 16:56	CMH 18:04	25%	8%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON