Today: UA 2302 at 08:56 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–23%.

Safest bet today UA 2302 DTW 08:56 → DEN 10:02 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 4450 DTW 16:00 → DEN 17:05 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2302 United Flight history →	DTW 08:56	DEN 10:02	10%	3%	0.2%	94%
UA 1846 United Flight history →	DTW 08:00	DEN 09:14	10%	2%	0.2%	75%
DL 1113 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:40	DEN 09:47	13%	2%	0.1%	87%
F9 2211 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 07:40	DEN 08:54	14%	5%	0.2%	85%
WN 550 Southwest	DTW 13:55	DEN 14:55	15%	3%	0.2%	no record
DL 1648 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:42	DEN 13:45	16%	3%	0.1%	85%
UA 302 United Flight history →	DTW 15:32	DEN 16:45	17%	3%	0.2%	83%
DL 2431 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:21	DEN 17:27	21%	4%	0.1%	72%
F9 3565 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 20:38	DEN 21:51	22%	6%	0.6%	85%
WN 4450 Southwest Flight history →	DTW 16:00	DEN 17:05	23%	3%	0.1%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON