Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1240 at 05:53 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 1240 DTW 05:53 → DFW 08:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3175 DTW 19:30 → DFW 21:31 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1240 American	DTW 05:53	DFW 08:00	11%	3%	1.8%	no record
DL 2746 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:35	DFW 10:24	12%	3%	0.5%	81%
AA 1108 American Flight history →	DTW 05:37	DFW 07:32	12%	3%	1.8%	86%
AA 482 American Flight history →	DTW 07:58	DFW 09:54	13%	4%	1.3%	88%
DL 1041 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:45	DFW 14:32	13%	4%	0.5%	86%
DL 1543 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:50	DFW 17:36	14%	5%	0.5%	73%
DL 1207 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:46	DFW 22:32	15%	6%	0.5%	74%
AA 3101 American Flight history →	DTW 11:44	DFW 13:42	15%	5%	0.9%	89%
AA 1792 American Flight history →	DTW 11:51	DFW 13:40	19%	5%	0.9%	76%
AA 1793 American Flight history →	DTW 15:52	DFW 17:50	24%	6%	0.9%	68%
F9 3177 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 11:49	DFW 13:46	27%	10%	0.7%	79%
AA 1786 American Flight history →	DTW 19:51	DFW 21:44	27%	7%	0.9%	47%
F9 3175 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 19:30	DFW 21:31	35%	16%	0.7%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON