Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1294 at 12:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 1294 DTW 12:30 → FLL 15:34 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest F9 2007 DTW 16:24 → FLL 19:41 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1294 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:30	FLL 15:34	11%	3%	0.5%	81%
DL 655 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:10	FLL 10:10	11%	3%	0.2%	86%
B6 2489 JetBlue Flight history →	DTW 06:00	FLL 09:00	14%	7%	0.7%	74%
DL 2296 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:44	FLL 23:42	18%	4%	0.5%	61%
DL 1037 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:56	FLL 19:00	18%	3%	0.5%	66%
B6 789 JetBlue Flight history →	DTW 16:10	FLL 19:10	27%	9%	0.7%	65%
F9 2007 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 16:24	FLL 19:41	33%	10%	0.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON