Today: YX 5846 at 14:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–28%.

Safest bet today YX 5846 DTW 14:10 → GRR 15:16 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4081 DTW 20:00 → GRR 21:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 5846 Republic	DTW 14:10	GRR 15:16	8%	2%	0.1%	no record
YX 5847 Republic	DTW 18:01	GRR 19:08	8%	2%	0.1%	no record
DL 5800 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 18:00	GRR 19:01	9%	2%	0.1%	93%
OO 3928 SkyWest	DTW 20:05	GRR 21:05	28%	9%	0.1%	no record
DL 4081 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 20:00	GRR 21:00	28%	9%	0.1%	80%
DL 4880 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 22:55	GRR 23:57	21%	9%	2.8%	79%
DL 5390 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 12:56	GRR 13:55	31%	13%	0.0%	69%
DL 5511 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 16:11	GRR 17:14	42%	17%	2.0%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON