Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:43 pm at Detroit); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: DL 5407 at 21:11 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops today


DL 5407 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 21:11	GSO 22:53	9%	3%	0.1%	78%
DL 5512 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 16:11	GSO 17:18	20%	5%	0.2%	65%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greensboro on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DTW 16:17 → CLT 18:17AA 1770	3h 08m Charlotte	CLT 21:25 → GSO 22:24AA 4054 · flown by Envoy	6h 07m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	DTW 15:59 → ATL 18:00DL 1467	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → GSO 22:43DL 1617	6h 44m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	DTW 18:09 → ATL 20:19DL 2053	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → GSO 23:59DL 3005	5h 50m	96%	80%
American Details →	DTW 17:22 → LGA 19:18AA 4630 · flown by Republic	1h 41m New York	LGA 20:59 → GSO 22:53AA 4577 · flown by Republic	5h 31m	89%	62%
American Details →	DTW 15:52 → DFW 17:50AA 1793	1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:17 → GSO 22:56AA 1316	7h 04m	80%	50%
American Details →	DTW 19:58 → CLT 21:55AA 1794	1h 06m Charlotte	CLT 23:01 → GSO 23:57AA 2802	3h 59m	80%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DTW 17:59 → LGA 19:50DL 2604	53m New York	LGA 20:43 → GSO 22:26DL 5118 · flown by Endeavor	4h 27m	61%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON