Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today YX 5828 DTW 16:08 → IND 17:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4898 DTW 20:35 → IND 21:53 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 5828 Republic	DTW 16:08	IND 17:35	10%	5%	0.1%	no record
DL 5826 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 16:00	IND 17:18	11%	4%	0.1%	85%
9E 5167 Endeavor	DTW 22:55	IND 00:13	12%	6%	0.5%	no record
9E 5341 Endeavor	DTW 17:37	IND 18:56	14%	11%	0.4%	no record
DL 4898 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 20:35	IND 21:53	14%	9%	0.5%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON