Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:05 am at Detroit)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 2333 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:29	JAX 10:49	14%	3%	1.0%	89%
DL 2994 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:02	JAX 17:27	16%	4%	2.1%	80%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	3h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 12:57 → JAX 16:54DL 2392	7h 54m	99%	88%
American Details →	DTW 06:45 → ORD 07:30AA 6465 · flown by SkyWest	1h 40m Chicago	ORD 09:10 → JAX 12:51AA 4740 · flown by Republic	6h 06m	97%	86%
Southwest Details →	DTW 06:30 → BNA 07:05WN 4581	3h 15m Nashville	BNA 10:20 → JAX 12:59WN 2942	6h 29m	100%	85%
American Details →	DTW 10:25 → ORD 11:00AA 4103 · flown by Envoy	2h 53m Chicago	ORD 13:53 → JAX 17:24AA 3486 · flown by Envoy	6h 59m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	DTW 05:50 → BWI 07:20WN 4534	55m Baltimore	BWI 08:15 → JAX 10:20WN 969	4h 30m	95%	81%
United Details →	DTW 11:00 → ORD 11:29UA 426	2h 31m Chicago	ORD 14:00 → JAX 17:49UA 5807 · flown by SkyWest	6h 49m	98%	80%
United Details →	DTW 07:05 → ORD 07:42UA 5553 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 10:32 → JAX 14:04UA 1113	6h 59m	95%	79%
American Details →	DTW 06:00 → CLT 07:51AA 387	3h 42m Charlotte	CLT 11:33 → JAX 13:19AA 1462	7h 19m	98%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DTW 17:45 → BWI 19:15WN 1526	46m Baltimore	BWI 20:01 → JAX 22:15WN 1037	4h 30m	69%	48%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:05 → LGA 11:50DL 2589	49m New York	LGA 12:39 → JAX 15:19DL 5461 · flown by Endeavor	5h 14m	71%	45%
American Details →	DTW 15:52 → DFW 17:50AA 1793	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:52 → JAX 22:24AA 2263	6h 32m	74%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON