Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: B6 1419 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–41%.

Safest bet that day B6 1419 DTW 06:00 → JFK 07:47 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest B6 819 DTW 17:25 → JFK 19:10 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 1419 JetBlue Flight history →	DTW 06:00	JFK 07:47	10%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 2751 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:14	JFK 11:58	11%	3%	0.5%	91%
DL 2934 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:18	JFK 18:29	18%	5%	0.7%	79%
DL 1316 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:59	JFK 19:39	23%	6%	0.7%	62%
B6 819 JetBlue	DTW 17:25	JFK 19:10	41%	7%	0.7%	no record
DL 5216 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 07:03	JFK 09:00	19%	10%	2.3%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON