Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 12–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 421 DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest F9 2801 DTW 08:30 → LAS 09:57 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 421 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:15	LAS 13:28	12%	3%	0.6%	76%
DL 334 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:59	LAS 10:12	12%	3%	0.2%	82%
DL 544 Delta Flight history →	DTW 18:40	LAS 19:54	14%	4%	0.7%	70%
DL 766 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:35	LAS 17:51	15%	3%	0.6%	73%
WN 645 Southwest	DTW 13:25	LAS 14:45	16%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 4177 Southwest Flight history →	DTW 13:05	LAS 14:25	18%	4%	0.4%	54%
DL 916 Delta Flight history →	DTW 00:15	LAS 00:46	18%	4%	0.2%	72%
F9 2801 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 08:30	LAS 09:57	21%	8%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON