Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 523 DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest DL 694 DTW 20:59 → LAX 22:46 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 523 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:35	LAX 10:20	11%	2%	0.6%	76%
DL 634 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:50	LAX 14:35	12%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 908 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:14	LAX 15:55	14%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 883 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:50	LAX 17:33	16%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 852 Delta Flight history →	DTW 18:20	LAX 20:04	16%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 694 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:59	LAX 22:46	17%	4%	0.6%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	DTW 05:25 → DEN 06:30WN 1778	1h 20m Denver	DEN 07:50 → LAX 09:20WN 1568	6h 55m	98%	83%
Southwest Details →	DTW 06:30 → BNA 07:05WN 4581	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 08:05 → LAX 10:31WN 400	7h 01m	95%	82%
Southwest Details →	DTW 08:40 → MDW 08:55WN 1781	1h 15m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → LAX 12:30WN 2433	6h 50m	97%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON