Today: AA 4415 at 10:38 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–31%.

Safest bet today AA 4415 DTW 10:38 → LGA 12:29 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 2604 DTW 17:59 → LGA 19:50 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4415 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 10:38	LGA 12:29	15%	6%	0.2%	82%
YX 4376 Republic	DTW 10:50	LGA 12:49	15%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 4339 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 14:05	LGA 16:05	17%	9%	0.2%	56%
AA 4414 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 19:31	LGA 21:29	18%	9%	0.2%	68%
DL 2603 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:50	LGA 23:40	19%	8%	0.7%	74%
DL 2589 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:05	LGA 11:50	20%	6%	0.2%	86%
AA 4630 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 17:22	LGA 19:18	22%	9%	0.3%	65%
DL 2602 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:02	LGA 15:53	24%	9%	0.2%	76%
DL 1669 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:15	LGA 14:03	27%	8%	0.2%	76%
DL 2604 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:59	LGA 19:50	31%	13%	0.2%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON