Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1747 at 10:35, 21%.

Safest bet today DL 1747 DTW 10:35 → MCO 13:08 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest F9 2530 DTW 18:47 → MCO 21:32 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Weather 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1747 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:35	MCO 13:08	21%	4%	0.3%	74%
DL 2027 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:15	MCO 14:59	26%	6%	0.3%	67%
DL 1123 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:22	MCO 15:03	28%	7%	0.4%	63%
F9 4286 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 12:55	MCO 15:47	30%	13%	0.9%	81%worse than usual
DL 1133 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:48	MCO 19:48	33%	9%	0.5%	64%
F9 3364 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 21:05	MCO 23:56	33%	19%	1.0%	72%
DL 337 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:00	MCO 16:46	33%	8%	0.4%	76%
DL 1274 Delta	DTW 19:01	MCO 21:42	35%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 1582 Southwest	DTW 16:25	MCO 19:05	37%	8%	0.4%	no record
F9 2530 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 18:47	MCO 21:32	38%	19%	1.0%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON