Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:50 pm at Detroit); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, 9E 5071 at 21:50, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


9E 5071 Endeavor	DTW 21:50	MDT 23:17	8%	4%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Harrisburg on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DTW 18:11 → ORD 18:58AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	2h 20m Chicago	ORD 21:18 → MDT 00:22 +1AA 4640 · flown by Republic	6h 11m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	DTW 15:59 → ATL 18:00DL 1467	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → MDT 23:53DL 1283	7h 54m	99%	80%
United Details →	DTW 16:36 → ORD 16:29UA 4673 · flown by SkyWest	1h 56m Chicago	ORD 18:25 → MDT 21:14UA 1719	4h 38m	87%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DTW 15:52 → DFW 17:50AA 1793	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:48 → MDT 22:59AA 2469	7h 07m	72%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON